The First Slice for Monday, November 22, 2021

(CNBC) — If history is a guide, the market should do well in the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday week.

The S&P 500 was slightly higher in the past week, buoyed by positive economic reports, particularly the unexpectedly strong 1.7% jump in October’s retail sales. There are a number of economic reports in the week ahead. The most important release is Wednesday’s personal consumption expenditures, which includes the inflation measure most watched by the Federal Reserve.

This year that holiday rally could depend on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues in his role after his term expires in February. Biden has also interviewed Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who is supported by progressive Democrats.

Strategists expect market volatility around the appointment, particularly if it is Brainard. She is viewed as more dovish than Powell, meaning she may be slower to raise interest rates. Elevated levels of inflation have been a concern in the market, and the worry is Brainard would not be as aggressive fighting it with rate hikes if necessary.

Week ahead calendar

Monday

EarningsZoom Video, Jack in the Box, Agilent, Urban Outfitters

10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

Tuesday

Earnings: HP, Dell Technologies, Abercrombie & FitchBest Buy, Nordstrom, Gap, VMWare, Cracker Barrel, American Eagle Outfitters, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Pure Storage, AutoDesk, Dollar Tree, JM Smucker

9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

9:45 a.m. Services PMI

Wednesday

Earnings: Deere

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims

8:30 a.m. Durable goods

8:30 a.m. Real GDP

8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators

10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

10:00 a.m. Personal income and spending, PCE deflator

10:00 a.m. New home sales

2:00 p.m. FOMC meeting minutes

Thursday

Thanksgiving holiday

U.S. markets closed

Friday

Stock market closes at 1 p.m.

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