The First for Tuesday, December 5, 2023

U.S. stocks experienced a mild setback on Monday, retreating slightly after reaching 2023 highs the previous week. The initial enthusiasm over potential Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts began to wane, influencing the market’s trajectory. The preceding five weeks had seen a surge in stock values, driven by expectations of rate cuts that led to a decline in Treasury yields. However, on Monday, yields rebounded, with the 10-year note rate rising by 6.1 basis points to 4.286%. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s dismissal of rate-cut speculation on Friday did little to deter the upward movement of yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 41.06 points, or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 declined 24.85 points, or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq Composite ended down 119.54 points, or 0.8%.

This week is marked by a flurry of economic data, focusing on Friday’s U.S. jobs report. Bob Savage, head of markets strategy and insights at BNY Mellon, noted the report’s potential impact on both bond and stock markets, suggesting that their simultaneous rally may be unsustainable in the long run. Despite encouraging inflation data and optimistic comments from Fed governor Christopher Waller last week, a weak manufacturing reading from the Institute for Supply Management on Friday heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut.

According to Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, the technical backdrop for the S&P 500 is favorable for a breakout above 4,600, albeit with potential challenges due to overbought conditions. Hopes for a Fed rate cut also influenced other markets, resulting in a temporary surge in gold prices on Sunday and a notable uptick in Bitcoin, surpassing $42,000 briefly to a level not seen since April 2022……….[read more]