The First Slice for Tuesday, February 14, 2024

U.S. stocks closed with optimism and caution on Monday, with the Dow hitting another record high while investors kept a close eye on upcoming inflation data. James Ragan from D.A. Davidson noted some profit-taking in the market, reflecting a cautious sentiment among traders. Despite the recent rally, which saw the S&P 500 surge more than 7% over five weeks, some traders are uneasy about the sustainability of the current market momentum.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 125.69 points, or 0.3%.
The S&P 500 fell 4.77 points, or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 48.12 points, or 0.3%.

Chris Larkin, managing director at E-Trade, highlighted the potential tension between the ongoing market rally and concerns over whether the S&P 500 might surpass the 5,000 mark. While historical data suggests that the S&P tends to climb after hitting significant milestones, the recent rapid surge might challenge that trend. Larkin pointed out that historically when the S&P rallied over 20% in 70 trading days, it often saw a dip two weeks later.

However, positive indicators are supporting the market in the short term. Corporate earnings have generally exceeded expectations, with 76% surpassing bottom-line estimates during the fourth-quarter earnings season. Andrew Greenbaum from Jefferies emphasized the significance of earnings revisions in predicting stock movements, suggesting that fundamentals are driving the recent rally.

Despite these positive factors, there’s a looming concern over the impact of Tuesday’s release of the U.S. consumer-price index data. Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, highlighted the Federal Reserve’s anticipation of rate adjustments to counter potential inflation. However, given the economy’s strength, uncertainties remain regarding the timing and extent of these adjustments…………[read more]

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