In recent news, all three major stock market indexes closed higher on Monday, thanks to a pullback in Treasury yields. This means that the interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes dropped below 4% following a New York Fed survey that found U.S. one-year inflation expectations at their lowest since January 2021. While this might sound like good news for the stock market, the tale has a twist. Despite the positive performance in the markets, there’s a lingering concern about how they might fare in 2024.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 216.90 points or 0.6%.
- The S&P 500 rose 66.30 points or 1.4%.
- The Nasdaq Composite ended up 319.70 points or 2.2%.
Interestingly, historical data suggests that the performance of the S&P 500 in the first five trading days of the year often gives us a clue about how it will perform over the rest of the year. This correlation has been observed 69% of the time since 1950. Unfortunately, this year, the S&P 500 was down by 0.1% during those crucial first five trading days.
Mixed economic indicators further fuel the uncertainty in the markets. On one hand, there’s strong data from the U.S. labor market, while on the other, the services sector survey shows some weakness. All eyes are now on this week’s inflation data, including the consumer and producer-price indexes, which could determine whether the recent pullback is just a minor blip or something more significant.
The central bank’s stance on interest rates remains a key factor. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggested it’s too early to rule out rate increases, and the Fed seems cautious about easing financial conditions too quickly………..[read more]
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