The First Slice for Tuesday, November 28, 2023
U.S. stocks closed with minor losses on Monday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 retreated from their recent highs. Investors exhibited caution amid news that China’s industrial profits only rose by 2.7% year-to-date in October, sparking concerns about deflation in the world’s second-largest economy. However, analysts remain optimistic about positive momentum in the stock market, with the S&P 500 having advanced for four consecutive weeks.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down by 56.68 points, or almost 0.2%.
- The S&P 500 ended off by 8.91 points, or 0.2%.
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down by 9.83 points, or 0.1%.
The market’s recent fluctuations are attributed to lower liquidity, making it challenging to draw firm conclusions. Despite uncertainties, there’s a prevailing belief in a “soft landing,” with the market anticipating three to four cuts in the fed funds rate in 2024. A key factor contributing to this outlook is the resilience of the U.S. consumer, whose behavior is closely watched as the holiday season approaches. The consumer’s spending power is crucial in preventing an economic recession.
This week’s focal point is Thursday’s personal-consumption expenditures price report for October, a key inflation gauge favored by the Federal Reserve. The report is expected to influence both bond and stock markets in the short term. The optimism surrounding the U.S. consumer is further supported by data indicating record online Black Friday spending, reaching $9.8 billion, a 7.5% increase from the previous year. However, economists note that the rising use of ‘buy-now, pay-later’ options suggests potential fragility in consumer spending.
In contrast, U.S. new-home sales experienced a 5.6% decline in October, falling to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000. The Treasury’s recent auction of two-year notes was described as “a bit soft,” while the sale of five-year maturities was deemed “solid.”……….
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